Flexible Plastic Packaging Has a Longer Supply Chain

July 27, 2023

Below estimates of €93m-€96m, and that investor expectations were muted into the print, but with unchanged outlook, it expected 2023 consensus EBIT of €380m as broadly unchanged.

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The modest downside at EPS level, given previously announced one-off Prague planned plant closure costs are not tax-deductible. We expect a better 2H vs 1H EBIT performance, with modest improvement in volumes and benefit of lower cost inflation (i.e. boxboard, polymer, waste paper & logistics) but their packaging pricing ‘sticking’ for longer, supporting margins.

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It said flexible packaging remains challenging: “Flexible plastic packaging has a longer supply chain, and greater ability to store stock through the chain & thus is continuing to see destocking headwinds. India (c8% sales) is focused on premium brands, and is likely to continue to see trading down. undefined

Short-term profitability improvement will be driven by volumes whilst longer term, the flexible division is a self-help recovery story potentially boosting group EBIT by >10% vs 2023 lows.” It concluded: “Overall, we believe that 2Q23 results might mark the end of the consensus earnings downgrades.”

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